Betting Long Shots for the Byron Nelson 2021

This is really a week where I believe a favorite or a triple digit long shot gets it done. When the scoring is projected to as high as it is, it just brings a lot of players into the mix. Roger F'ing Sloan is never going to win Quail Hollow or the US Open at a winning score of -9 because he's not that good. But, he could win an event at -20.

Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 2 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.

Young Will heads up the card at 25/1 and I'd be a fool not to include him. I grabbed him at 30/1 on Monday night, but 25 is still fine given the size of his nuts and ability to win this golf tournament. He's familiar with Craig Ranch, and he discussed earlier in the week how the need to be aggressive off these Zoysia fairways should suit him nicely.

The Zurich Classic co winner, Marc Leishman, is the next man up because I can't have an entire betting card for a Texas event and not include an Aussie. Leish arrives in solid form and good all around game for this place. It's more of a value play than anything. I don't love the middle of the betting board given the win equity of most of the names. Don't have that issue with Leish.

I'm trying not to overthink Si Woo here as it requires distance (check), aggressive play (check), and the ability to win in a scoring fest (check). I'm not sure Si Woo gives a shit about this tournament, but if he does...he could run away with it. He checks all the right boxes from a ball striking, wind player standpoint.

Aaron Wise won this event (different course) a couple of years ago when his girlfriend at the time refused to kiss him on the mouth after. Not sure why that matters, but I thought you should know. Wise is the stereotypical long hitting, aggressive, great iron playing young guy with the stones to win anywhere IF he can just have 1 good week on the greens. That's all it comes down to. Can he bottle some magic for 4 days on the greens? At 66/1, in this field, I'll pay to see it.

Talor Gooch is a guy I've come on to late this week, but I'm really liking his game for Craig Ranch. Long enough, hits a ton of GIR's, gains strokes on bent grass, gains strokes in the wind, and feels close to the breakout victory. Top 5 at TPC back in March and a T4 in Houston in the Fall. He may be my favorite value on the board at 80/1.

Cam Champ is just a pinch my nose and send it kind of play because 85/1 seems long in this field for the longest hitter on the PGA TOUR who's happened to win twice and even contend in a major or two. He's sucked lately, but what the hell.

The trio at 150/1 of Kizzire, Clark and Straka are all long off the tee, and Kizzire and Clark make up a couple of the best putters in this field. I think length and putting are crucial this week. Straka is more of a FOMO bet given his aggressive nature, ability to score, eat on par 5s and just value at 150/1. I just wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these boys has a shot late on Sunday to get it done.