The Power Fade: 2023 AT&T BYRON NELSON
The Approach to fading big names for the AT&T Byron nelson 2023
What’s going on TJ Nation! Allen Klutts here with another addition of The Power Fade: The Fades 8k and Above that will help you smash your GPP's.
By all metrics, Quail Hollow produced an 0-2 record for the Power Fade. Xander and Sungjae finishing inside the Top-5 made for a hard week if you faded both players.
The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Scottie Scheffeler headlines a realitively weak field that lost Jordan Spieth to a WD on Monday.
TPC Craig Ranch boasts wide fairways and low scores, and this week should be no different. In the past 2 editions of this tournament KH Lee has shot -26 and -25 on his way towards back to back victories. This week fancies itself to be a good ol' fashioned putting contest. I will be focusing on Strokes Gained Putting, Proximity from 125-150 yards and Opportunities Gained.
Jason Day ($9,400)
Jason Day kicks off our Power Fades this week at $9,400. Coming off a Missed Cut at Wells Fargo and a less than inspiring performance at Augusta National, Day makes for an intriguing fade at Byron Nelson.
Why The Fade Works:
As I delve into the stats on Jason Day this week, there is a glaring deficiency that leads me to believe the fade is worthwhile.
In this field, Jason Day ranks 102nd in this field for Opportunities Gained. As TPC Craig Ranch is the textbook definition of a birdie fest, Opportunities Gained will play a key role in who will grab the victory.
Day is ranked 21st in this field Strokes Gained Putting. Although this can help him in a putting contest, he also ranks 99th in the field from the key proximity number of 125-150 yards. I believe firmly that this will be problematic for Day in a shootout environment.
The need to go low, with little room for error in scoring puts considerable pressure on Day at $9,400. All things considered this makes it difficult for Day to be an optimal play. Throw in a mediocre course history at TPC Craig Ranch (51st, MC) and name value ownership, I am fully supporting a J-Day Fade this week.
Scottie Scheffler ($11,900)
A textbook definition of a Power Fade, the class of the field, Scottie Scheffler is my next fade at $11,900.
Why The Fade Works:
At $11,900 on DraftKings, you could even argue that in this field, Scottie is a bargain. I will not argue that point with anyone. Nevertheless, DraftKings is a game of finding the optimal lineup. Ideally for Scheffler to be in the optimal lineup, he has to win, or come inside the top 3. Optimally for a Top 3 Scheffler finish, Hatton, Matsuyama, and Tom Kim would have to finish outside the Top 5.
I am not breaking any news that ownership (rightfully so) will also be extremely high on Scottie. This is even more the case now that Jordan Spieth has withdrawn. Consequently, a very optimal leverage situation should Scheffler underperform at high ownership becomes viable.
Another key point is that we could have a Mexico Open type scenario here at the Byron Nelson. A potential two man runaway duel between the top two players in the field. Furthermore, just two weeks ago at the Mexico Open we saw a scenario with a similarly priced Jon Rahm, who did not win at high ownership. Rahm was not part of the optimal lineup in this case. I am of the belief that Scheffler has to win this week to be optimal.
Additionally, in an event that is a putting contest, Scottie's putting woes lend merit to the fade. Ranking 83rd in the field Strokes Gained Putting is not going to help Scheffler crack that optimal lineup.
The putter could flip at any moment for Scottie, we've seen it happen before. If he wins then I am going to say I was unquestionably wrong on this call. I am willing to take my chances thou and fade the top player on the board.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! I will return to you next week for the second major of the year: The PGA Championship from Oak Hill!
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's ride the Power Fade!
“ The need to go low, with little room for error in scoring puts considerable pressure on Day at $9,400. The price tag combined with the stats not lining up will make it difficult for Day to be an optimal play." Â
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.