The Rundown: 2023 BMW Championship
And then there were 50. The circle is tightening on golf's version of Warzone, and we're down to the last men standing heading into round two of the FedEx Cup Playoffs at Olympia Fields. We've already seen a few shocking results early in this playoff run, (seriously, nobody wake Lucas Glover up) but what else is in store with just eight rounds of golf remaining in the 2022-23 golf season? East Lake and a whopping $75 million purse await, but only for the top 30 players who survive the cut this week. Here's everything you need to know to make the most of the penultimate event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season.
course notes & quotes
The notoriously difficult North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club is the host venue this week. Designed in 1915 by Willie Park Jr., the legendary track has remained largely unchanged over the years with the exception of added length to keep it competitive against the modern game. Olympia Fields has hosted the BMW on just one prior occasion when it was the setting for Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson's epic duel in 2020. Prior to that, this venue has only sporadically appeared in the spotlight as host of the 2015 US Am won by Bryson DeChambeau and the 2003 US Open won by Jim Furyk.
The North at Olympia fields is perhaps the closest thing to a US Open course on the PGA TOUR rota. It's long, narrow fairways, thick rough and demanding greens make it one of the most challenging layouts these pros will have faced all year. The North is a par-70 tipping out at 7,366 yards with the classic mix of two par 5s, four par 3s and 12 par 4s. The fairways and greens are combination of bentgrass and poa, and 4"+ Kentucky bluegrass rough will make life difficult for those who miss these narrow landing spots. As for the greens, they've been significantly shrunken to an average of 5,238 sq feet - down from 6,000 in 2020.
That year, amid the COVID-19 craziness that turned the PGA TOUR schedule on its head, the BMW actually served as a warmup for the delayed US Open at Winged Foot. Often described as a 'US Open' course, the North at Olympia Fields presented a similiar challenge to what we saw a month later in Mamaroneck, NY. Prior to the 2020 tournament, players were in agreement that the BMW would be set up more like a major than the your average TOUR event.
"I guess it's a little bit Bethpage-like," said Justin Thomas back in 2020. "It's right in front of you. There's nothing about it that's tricked up. It's just a difficult golf course that you have to go out and execute well... you're just going to have to have those par saves and really scramble well or leave the ball in the right place because you can kind of get it snowballing out here pretty quickly."
For an idea of just how tough Olympia Fields played last time out, Rahm and DJ reached a playoff here in 2020 with a score of -4, and Joaquin Niemann (-2), Hideki Matsuyama (-2) and Tony Finau (-1) were the only other players in red figures for the tournament. Heavy rain early this week will soften the conditions up a bit, but come the weekend we can expect these greens to be running every bit of 12.5 on the stimp.
Major Caliber
“I guess it's a little bit Bethpage-like. It's right in front of you. There's nothing about it that's tricked up. It's just a difficult golf course that you have to go out and execute well... you're just going to have to have those par saves and really scramble well or leave the ball in the right place because you can kind of get it snowballing out here pretty quickly.”
— Justin Thomas
Course history
Like other tournaments on difficult setups, the best of the best will likely rise to the top. But does history suggest a specific style of play will be more effective than others at Olympia Fields? While we only have the 2020 BMW in terms of recent history, much can be gathered from the way that tournament went down. Here are a few key notes and numbers that might help you make your picks this week.
Off the Tee
Bombers like Rahm, DJ, Finau and Jason Kokrak finished at or near the top in 2020, but so too did the likes of Brendan Todd and Hideki Matsuyama. Player quotes from that year emphasize the importance of finding fairways, but the data may suggest otherwise. According to DataGolf, Olympia Fields has the third-narrowest fairways on TOUR, leading to a third-lowest average driving accuracy percentage with just over 46% of drives finding the short grass. The bomb-and-gouge tactic worked well in 2020 because if these guys know they're going to miss a lot of fairways anyway, they're better off getting it as close to the hole as possible. All of the top five finishers ranked T15 or better in driving distance that week, while none finished T10 or better in driving accuracy.
Tee to Green
The North Course at Olympia Fields is long when you consider it's a par 70, and as a result will test these pros throughout the bag in ways they aren't tested very often. Ball-striking is paramount on courses where birdies are hard to come by, and Olympia Fields requires precision with the mid-to-long irons especially. These reduced-size greens will require controlled shots with spin to keep the ball on the putting surface, putting a premium on shots from the fairway or at least shorter, more lofted shots from the rough. There are a few holes where the longer hitters can get a short iron or wedge in their hand, and it will be important to cash in on those rare opportunities.
Around the Green
Scrambling will be a popular topic on the telecast this week with these guys likely to find themselves out of position on a consistent basis. Bogey avoidance is an important stat to keep track of this week, but much of that will come from success on these greens. The previous superintendent at Olympia Fields described the greens as the main defense of the North Course, and the fast, undulating bentgrass surfaces will keep these pros on their toes. Rahm and DJ famously banged-in a couple of 50+ footers in their title chase in 2020, and skill with the flat stick will make up for a lot of misses on this tough setup this week.
Betting picks & plays
With just two weeks of important golf left before we take a break and look ahead to the Ryder Cup, we're looking to finish strong and take advantage of what little golf betting opportunities remain. A limited field once again dampens odds throughout the board, so I'm looking away from traditional outrights to find some value. As always, be sure to check out the Tour Junkies Blog for more picks and insight from the rest of the gang, including DB's Big Balls Betting Card, which cashed Lucas Glover at 90/1 last week. With that said, here are some names and numbers I like at the BMW Championship, and be sure to drop me a follow on Instagram, Twitter and TikTok for more plays throughout the week.
Tournament 3-Ball (*Finau +170 v Cam Young +165 & Ben An +180)
Last week in Memphis was a rough return to action for Finau who skipped the final regular season event after a T7 at the 3M. He had an up-and-down week with an opening-round 67 and a pair of 73s over the weekend. But Olympia Fields should suit his game much better than TPC Southwind did, and he has the benefit of being one of only 23 players in the field this week who played in the 2020 BMW when it was last held here. And Big Tone played well, putting his way to a fifth-place finish. While Young and An will do their best to overpower this course much in the same way Rahm and DJ did back then, I think Finau's combination of power, accuracy and experience makes him the most attractive option of the three.
Tournament 3-Ball (*Rahm +200 v Rory McIlroy +160 & Scottie Scheffler +160)
Each of golf's current 'Big 3' have had their time on top of the game this season. Rahm's start to 2023 had us thinking he'd win the grand slam and another six TOUR events, but the Spaniard understandibly cooled off mid-season, yielding the floor to Scheffler and McIlroy for the last few months. But a runner-up at the Open jogged golf fans' incredibly short memory, and a look at the current points standings shows Rahmbo is in pole position to cap off an all-time season by hoisting the FedEx Cup next week. With Scottie's putter continuing to ail him, I'm not scared to go against him here. Rory is more intimidating off a T3 finish in Memphis, but I'm banking on Rahm's experience making a difference at Olympia Fields where he won back in 2020.
Meet the Author:
Nate Moore
A Georgia native, proud UGA alum and former media guy for Augusta National, the only thing Nate Moore loves more than the Peach State is a Top-20 parlay. Nate is a golf-obsessed sportswriter/journalist who brings his experience in the golf industry to the Tour Junkies brand.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.