Outright Bets for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2023
The Betting Approach for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2023
And we're on the board with another winner for this 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season as we hit Max Homa at 25/1 last week at The Farmers. I published the card on Twitter, in the Chalk Bomb, and in the Nut Hut as I didn't have time to write up the article last week.
One note from the card last week: I mistyped Max's number and had him at 35/1 instead of 25/1, but he was taken at 25/1 thanks to the 1st Look show on YouTube that you're missing out on if you're not watching regularly.
On to the worst field we've seen in 2023 as many are playing Saudi or just taking the week off before the season really gets rolling next week with the Waste Management. However, this garbage field is likely to give us a long shot winner and I AM HERE FOR IT! Plenty of long shots (in stronger fields than this one) have won at Pebble.
One key factor when you study the trends is how experience seems to matter here. The weather, the nuances of the courses, how far the ball travels, the POA greens, etc all can make things tricky to newcomers. You'll notice on the card that most of my guys have some experience and at least a decent showing at Pebble Beach in the past.
The Vegas sportsbooks have the O/U winning total at -18.5. It's going to be on the chilly side most of the week on the ocean shores of Pebble Beach, with wind kicking up late on Thursday, Saturday and most of the day on Sunday. I think the wind is going to put an even greater weight on good scramblers as missing these peckish greens becomes even more likely.
More Intel on Pebble Beach
We're all quite familiar with Pebble Beach, but in the event you'd like a little more insight into the golf course(s), the key stats to consider, and how the event has turned out in the past -- then we can't stress strongly enough why being a Nut Hut member is important. We provide all the research each week to save you countless hours and help you make informed decisions.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2023
I'm up 42 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
We're going big this week and I'm searching to top my biggest outright ever of 250/1 (shout out Hudson Swafford) with the 2 nuclear bombs at the bottom. I wish I could've squeezed in Mav or Hoge up top, but their price just never touched 25/1 even early Monday.
Every player on the card has played the AT&T Pro Am before with Smalley having the least experience with his MC last year. I'm focused on guys that will find fairways, and then hit short irons and wedges well into these small greens.
Knox and Kodaira are really the only bad players around the greens, but Knox hits so many GIR's and gains so many strokes on approach that it doesn't matter.
Nick Taylor, Ted Potter, and Vaughn Taylor all won this event with a stronger field rating from the OWGR as we're getting this week. They all hit at big triple digit numbers. If those guys can do it, then anyone on this card could get it done.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!