The Rundown: 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson
Stuck between last week's 'designated' Wells Fargo and the upcoming PGA Championship, this week's action in Big D sees only six of the world's top 30 teeing it up for one final warmup before the year's second major. Native Texan Scottie Scheffler is back for his first home game of the season, but as we've seen over the last two years, this week presents an excellent opportunity for breakout stars and less-established names to make a statement. Here's everything you need to know to make your picks down in Dallas and avoid a Trey Lewis situation for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.
course notes & quotes
TPC Craig Ranch is back for a third-straight year as host of the Byron Nelson after taking over duties from Trinity Forest Golf Club in 2021. Like most of the "TPC's" with the exception of Sawgrass and Scottsdale, there isn't much to write home about for the 'Ranch.
The Tom Weiskopf design was opened in 2004 and features larger-than-average bentgrass greens with Zoysia fairways and bermuda rough. The course will look and play a little differently this year with the par-5 12th shortened by 50 yds to stretch it into a long par-4, bringing the total length to a 7,414 yd par-71 for the tournament.
While the Texas winds could always make an appearance, there really isn't anything about the course itself that will give these pros any trouble. TPC Craig Ranch features some of the widest fairways on TOUR, and non-penal rough sets up perfectly for bombers, ranking inside the top 20 on TOUR in average driving distance at just over 293 yards. While water is featured on 13 holes, it's really not a factor for these guys as shown in 2021 when players averaged just .18 penalty strokes per round, well under the TOUR average.
TPC Craig Ranch is a true second-shot golf course, but that doesn't mean those second shots are hard. The average green size around here is 6,778 sq ft. That's 200 feet bigger than last week's aircraft carrier-sized landing areas at Quail Hollow.
“You're able to really hit some darts into some of these greens," Will Zalatoris said ahead of the 2022 Byron Nelson. "I think the biggest defense of this place really is the wind. It's fairly wide open, it's very long, especially when you have Zoysia grass, the ball doesn't roll very far. Expect some low numbers this week. But at the same time, if the wind picks up, I think one year in Q-School, I shot 72 and moved up 15 spots. Normally you might shoot 68 and move back 20 spots."
As of writing this on Monday, the weatherman calls for rain throughout the week that could result in some really soft and scoreable conditions. It looks like there could be some wind in the 10-15 mph range, but if the course gets soaked, I doubt that will be enough to keep these guys from going low at TPC Craig Ranch.
Breezy or Easy
“I think the biggest defense of this place really is the wind. It's fairly wide open. Expect some low numbers this week”
— Will Zalatoris ahead of the 2022 Byron Nelson
Course history
If the two previous editions of the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch are anything to go off, expect birdies to come in bunches this week. History would also suggest that K.H. Lee will win. The South Korean has won every Byron Nelson played here and will try to complete the first three-peat on TOUR since Steve Stricker in 2011.
Off the Tee
As mentioned above, these fairways are practically football fields, and players who somehow miss the fairway are not punished severely. While that certainly plays into the hands of the bombers, driving distance is actually not a pre-requisite to contend at TPC Craig Ranch. Of the 23 players to finish T10 or better at the Byron Nelson since the move here, only five ranked in the top 15 in driving distance that week.
Tee to Green
As one of the easiest tracks on the PGA TOUR schedule, it's no surprise to anyone that strokes-gained numbers are off the charts at TPC Craig Ranch. Be that as it may, the ball-striking data still jumps out when looking at what types of players have succeeded around here in the first two visits to the 'Ranch. Looking again at the 23 players to finish T10 or better, 13/23 ranked inside the top 15 in SG: APP, and a whopping 19/23 (nearly 83%) were in the top 15 in SG: T2G. Simply put, you better be striping it to keep up.
Betting picks & plays
After a nice opening to the account down in Mexico, we struck out at the Wells Fargo. A few of the bigger names let us down in what was an upset win for Wyndham Clark (+6600). But we're back in the saddle in the Lone Star state to get right with the PGA Championship looming. As always, be sure to check out the Tour Junkies Blog throughout the week for more picks and insight from the rest of the gang. With that said, here are some longer options to look at for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.
Seamus Power (+4000, T10: +400, T20: +180)
Coming off a solid T18 in Charlotte last week and enjoying a quietly stellar season so far, Seamus Power is in a nice spot for a longshot play. He already has eight finishes of T25 or better this season including a win in the Bermuda Championship last fall. He finished 17th in this event last year and 9th the year before, and his skill with the flat stick sets him up nicely for the putting contest we can expect to see here. He's gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 15 starts, and I like him to keep it going this week.
Tom Hoge (+4500, T10: +900, T20: +200)
If there's one part of the bag that TPC Craig Ranch does challenge, it's the long irons/woods. According to Data Golf, the 'Ranch ranks 7th among measured courses in average SG: APP from 150+ yards, and in 2022, 15.6% of approach shots came from 200-250 yards. So now is the perfect time to ride with long-range sniper Tom Hoge. He's leading the PGA TOUR in SG: APP this season and ranks 13th on TOUR in SG: APP from >200 yds. As a result of those stellar ball-striking numbers, he's enjoying a solid campaign with 8 top-15 finishes including a T13 in his last start at the Zurich.
Scott Stallings (+6500, T10: +600, T20: +275)
Scott Stallings, or as I like to call him 'The Mule King of Bentgrass" is probably my favorite play this week. He's posted four top 25s this season with only four missed cuts, as well as a T26 at the Masters on the bentgrass greens of ANGC. Stallings loves his greens bent. Over his last six starts on bentgrass greens, the 38-year-old has THREE top-5 finishes. Throw in his great course history (3rd in '21 and 25th in '22) and you've got an ideal longshot for a T10/T20 play.
Meet the Author:
Nate Moore
A Georgia native, proud UGA alum and former media guy for Augusta National, the only thing Nate Moore loves more than the Peach State is a Top-20 parlay. Nate is a golf-obsessed sportswriter/journalist who brings his experience in the golf industry to the Tour Junkies brand.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.