Betting Outrights for The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022
The Betting Approach for The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022
We're looking to hit THIS CARD's 4th outright of the season as the PGA TOUR heads to Bay Hill in Orlando for a stacked field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The stars are out and face a tough task ahead as Bay Hill plays as one of the hardest courses on the PGA TOUR rotation.
The sportsbooks have the O/U winning score line set at -13.5. We tend to see a lot of guys club down off the tee in order to find the short grass as the tournament committee has started to really beef up the rough in the last few years. But, the true trouble lies as you approach these firm greens. Carrying the ball over water and sand on approach shots will be challenging for every player in the field.
Looking back over the last 6 or 7 years, Bay Hill has more than doubled the amount of approach shots coming outside of 200 yards than the PGA TOUR average. Swing speed and long iron prowess is a must. Then from there...it's all about navigating these grainy, fast, Tifeagle Bermuda green complexes.
More Intel on Bay Hill
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Bay Hill will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022
It's quite the tight card for me this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational largely due to the winning odds history of this event. We've only seen one triple digit winner here in the last 6 or 7 years, and he happens to be on this card. These stacked fields make it tough for DB's Big Balls Betting card given the restriction of picks at 25/1 or longer, but that's [hashtag] golf, right...
I'm up 17 units on the season strictly betting long shot outrights on the PGA TOUR through 18 events. I'm shooting to win about 40 units on this card as I take the mid range to pound town.
Im, Hideki, & Zalatoris were the last 3 marked off the card to make room for more outs in the 50/1 and 80/1 range. I just couldn't fit them in and have the number of outs I like to have. I started off with Leishman at 33/1 just to have at least one name in the shorter range.
I really love Leishman here this week. He's obviously proven to be a course horse for Bay Hill, but the form and ball striking coming in is the most attractive. He's also got an early Friday tee time, which I like. The current forecast for Friday as of Wednesday afternoon calls for some wind to pick up in the middle of the day, and I bet those bermuda greens are going to get rather crunchy for the late guys on Friday.
My love for Keith Mitchell has been well documented across every bit of content I've done this week. Even TikTok! And that number on Sam Burns staying at 50/1 all week was just too juicy to pass up, despite his poor performance on the West Coast Swing.
Jason Kokrak has crushed it at Bay Hill the last 3 years. The form isn't amazing, but it's solid enough. His skill set is built for this place. Swing speed, long iron stud and the putter is underrated.
I'm sure many of you reading this are surprised to see Seamus Power on the card despite not even talking about him on the podcasts. He's my "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" play I guess. The 2 missed cuts in February don't concern me terribly as he wasn't all that off from a ball striking perspective. It looks like just a couple of off weeks. But, look at Seamus' big picture skill set. It's perfect for Bay Hill.
I documented my love for Lanto and Danny Willett on our podcasts as well as defended them on the Mayo pod this week. I'm sticking to my guns.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!