DraftKings Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021
The best time of the year for golf is upon us as the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing heats up and that means The Players and The Masters are right around the corner. This week we are treated with a testy Bay Hill track and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.Â
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and my favorite DraftKings picks for the week.Â
Congrats to all the Collin Morikawa backers at the World Golf Championship - Workday Championship at The Concession last week. What a stud. While most of the field was putting up doubles, triples, quads, and others, Morikawa was birdieing five holes in a row and putting on a ball-striking clinic. Though the field this week will not be quite as strong as a WGC event, the course, however, will be.
With a lot of the world’s best taking a breather before The Players next week, opportunities for some of the lesser known PGA Tour hopefuls to find the top of the leaderboard open up. Top-ranked and defending API champ, Tyrrell Hatton returns to Orlando to seek back to back titles. Rory McIlroy and Patrick Reed are the only other top ten players teeing it up. Bryson Dechambeau, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth and last week’s opposite field Puerto Rico Open event winner, Branden Grace, are just a few of the sharks in the water this week.
The field is set at 123 with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend.
Bay Hill Course Breakdown
The Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, FL has been a staple on the PGA Tour for a number of years and though the course isn’t as majestic as some others, when Arnold Palmer’s name and legacy is stamped on a place, the players flock to it. Bay Hill sets up as a par 72 spreading out almost 7,500 yards. The tees, fairways, and super rough are all Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Rye while the greens are TifEagle Bermudagrass rolling lightning fast and almost as firm as a marble countertop.
The greens are small with lots of trouble surrounding them. The rough is treacherous. High, thick, and not friendly but it is not the only defense for the course. Palmer also lined it with 84 bunkers and eight water hazards making water in play on nine holes. The winning score has been all over the place here and is typically determined by the weather. Wind hammered down the score last year with Hatton winning at -4 while Matt Every got it to -19 when he won back to back in 2015. International players have won the event in five straight years.
Some key stats to focus on this week are irons, irons, and long irons. Approach, greens in regulation and strokes gained off the tee with irons will be very important. Solid Bermuda around the green game and putting will also be a necessity this week. All four par 3s play between 200-225 yards and par 5 scoring will once again decide the fate of the field. The best ball-striker of the week will likely be holding the trophy on Sunday. If you are a member at Fantasy National Golf Club do not forget to add a healthy portion of Opps Gained and a sprinkle of Good Drives to your models.
The Picks & Fades
Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.
$9k+:Â
DB: Play - Jordan Spieth | Fade - Rory McIlroy
Pat: Play - Viktor Hovland | Fade - Tommy Fleetwod
AC: Play - Bryson Dechambeau, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth | Fade - Jason Day
Even though Bryson finished T22 last week at the WGC he was seventh in DraftKings scoring. Like him or not, the man pounds the ball, grinds it to the green and then putts the lights out. He is top five in almost every stat I have in my model this week. Sungjae is similar for me. Top ten in almost every stat over the last six months. He has finished third here in back to back years and won The Honda a year ago next week. Spieth is almost back to form and the brilliance is starting to return. He has never played in this event and maybe that is what it will take for Speef to find the spark. Day has WD here two years in a row and I have every confidence that he already has tickets to Universal Studios and Disney for the weekend.
$8k:
DB: Play - Francesco Molinari | Fade - Billy Horschel
Pat: Play - Billy Horschel | Fade - Harris English
AC: Play - Sam Burns, Jason Kokrak | Fade - Max Homa
I think the $8k range is super solid this week and you can find a really good argument to play every player in here. Burns is #4 in my model this week so hard to ignore all of that bright green Fantasy National screen. Kokrak’s stats don’t jump off the page but I loved what I saw last week, he is putting well, makes greens and won’t be high owned. I’m going to give honorable mentions to Billy Horschel who I was all over last week and hoping to hop back on over the next two weeks and Will Zalatoris. Willy Z has been playing phenomenal golf but this will be his 6th straight event and he has two weeks coming up as well. That leads me to the Homa fade. Max has been playing super well but this is his seventh week in a row and he won just two weeks ago.
$7k:
DB: Play - Talor Gooch | Fade - Si Woo Kim
Pat: Play - Cameron Tringale | Fade - Si Woo Kim
AC: Play - Cameron Davis, Rickie Fowler, Cameron Tringale, | Fade - Ian Poulter
The $7k range is going to be tricky chalk this week. Anyone looking at the stats should be drawn to both Cams. Davis and Tringale have nothing red in the key stats and their ability to pile up DraftKings points over the last six months has been impressive. Rickie… well Rickie is more of a hopeful play. Fowler is in jeopardy of missing his first Masters in 11 years if he does not make it back inside the top 50 in the world rankings by the end of march. With his course history and adoption of the maybe modern day Arnold Palmer, the game might just come together for the poster boy this week. It might be an easy fade on Poulter but he just hasn’t shown anything of interest as of late and with a trip here every year, Poulter hasn’t notched anything better than a T21 in nine years.
$6k:Â
DB: Play - Matthew NeSmith, Brendan Steele, Harold Varner III
Pat: Play - Patrick Rodgers, Cameron Percy, Patton Kizzire
AC: Play - Matthew NeSmith, Doug Ghim, Cameron Percy
NeSmith is sixth in my model. Sixth! At $6,900 your only real worry is how owned will he be. The kid has been striking the ball with the best of them recently and a big breakthrough is on the horizon. Ghim and Percy have been two of my favorite plays in the $6k range this season. Both have performed well for me and are coming in with decent form. Especially Percy, who scored a top 10 last week at the PRO. I’ll give a mention to Tom Hoge if you need someone cheap. Hoge has been another favorite and is one of my top three most profitable betted golfers. Hoge is in the top third in my model, had a top 12 at Pebble, putts best at Bermuda and in his two starts at the API, has a T26 in 2018 and a T15 last year.
THE INS & OUTS
OUT: Pat Perez, Brian Harman, Nate Lashley, Davis Love
IN: Branden Grace, Kristoffer Ventura, Patrick Rodgers
If you are not yet a member, join the Tour Junkies crew and some brilliant minds in Goalby’s Nut Hut. The Nut Hut is a discord chat with tons of insight, caddie news, banter, trash talk and most of all a collection of golf addicts that have won more than $3 million since the restart. Click the banner below to sign up!
