DraftKings Pivot Plays for the Arnold Palmer Inv 2021
We're going to look at 2 extremely popular names across DFS contests and why you could justify staying away. More importantly, I'm going to tell you about 2 other players with as much upside at significantly less projected ownership. Ownership leverage and equal or greater upside from the players we're pivoting away from is the name of the game every week for the Pivot Point article.
Viktor Hovland (28%) / Patrick Reed (12%)
Viktor Hovland $10,600 28% - This will make it three straight weeks that Hovland makes an appearance on The Pivot Point, and he’s starting to make me look bad with back to back top 5’s in his previous appearances. The good news is, the guys I had suggested pivoting off Hovland for the last two weeks have a win(Homa) and a T2nd(Brooks). So here we go again…...
Patrick Reed $10,200 12% - Patrick Reed is in the middle of a great run as well with a win at Torrey a few weeks ago and seven top 25s in his last eight starts including four top 10s. Reed has always had a great short game and it’s led him to success at Bay Hill where he finished T7 in 18’ and 15th here last year. Reed is flat out rolling the rock right now and has gained at least three strokes putting in each of his last seven events. Remember, always play Patrick Reed on tough courses.Â
Why Pivot? I think we are going to see a grind fest this week and it may get worse over the weekend with the projected winds. The greens at Bay Hill are tough to hit and the rough around the greens is deep. Everyone in the field will be tested with their short game this week. We saw glimpses of Hovland’s struggles around the greens last week but he continued making so many birdies it just didn’t matter. At nearly 30% ownership combined with his high price, Hovland will need another T5 to pay off. Yes, he has done that 4 of his last 5 events but I think that streak ends this week. Hovland had a terrible Florida swing in 2020 coming off his win at Puerto Rico with a MC at the Honda and a T42 at API and lost over 3.5 strokes ARG in both events. Instead of eating the chalk with Hovland I will turn the grinder himself, Patrick Reed. The profile on Reed is too good and half the ownership of Hovland. Oh the leverage!!
Corey Conners (12%) / Wyndham Clark (6%)
Corey Conners $7300 12% - It’s always a good feeling when you can find value with an elite ball striker that is just a pure T2G specialist. Obviously that is Corey Conners this week…...why else would you play him? While he has always been known for his ball striking, he also seems to be getting better around the greens as his career progresses. $7300 is pretty good value on a guy that you know is going to hit fairways and greens at a higher percentage than most of the field every week.Â
Wyndham Clark $7000 6% - Still trying to figure out why Wyndham Clark has not won on tour yet…. He seems to be in the thick of things on Thursday and Friday a lot, then he finds ways to disappear and snag a T30 by Sunday. Clark has all the tools to be successful this week. He’s great off the tee and has a pretty damn good short game to go with it. In the last 100 rounds Clark is 9th in the field in strokes gained short game. He has a great track record at PGA National, another tough Florida track that provides a similar test to Bay Hill. He has one appearance here with a 67th place finish last season.
Why Pivot?: Another chance to pivot off chalk Team No Putt ✅. While you need to be a great ball striker to compete week end and week out on the PGA tour, you also have to make some putts along the way. Conners is 0-2 in his efforts the past two years at Bay Hill and it’s clear to see his short game is tested too much here. There’s a lot of decent chalk worth eating this week at the top of the board if you choose to do so, don’t waste it on Conners. Clark’s in good form and has actually gained strokes on approach in back to back events. His OTT game and great short game will allow him to take full advantage of these par 5s. While Clark may not be able to win, I do think he gives you top 15 upside this week.
Written by: Tim Gaymon (TH803)