Outright Bets for The American Express 2024
The Betting Approach for The American Express 2024
Guess what friends...another F'ing putting contest is at our doorstep as the PGA TOUR heads to PGA West for The American Express 2024. Yay! Well in all seriousness, I enjoy the variance. I mean we've had winners in 2024 at 150/1 and 500/1 in Grayson Murray last week. Love to see it. Wish I had him. Literally not a soul had Murray in the golf betting streets.
"Dome golf" is on the menu as the weather looks absolutely titties! Zero wind and decent temps all week. With winning scores the last five years between -23 and -27, I'd expect more of the same this year. Swafford, Landry and Long all won here in the last five years at triple digit numbers, and with no Rahm here to defend...I'd say we could see another triple digit winner take it down.
The top end of the field ain't bad, but we know X and Cantlay can't close, and Scottie in a putting contest isn't ideal.
PGA West sees higher than TOUR average GIR rates, over 4.5 birdies or better per round and under 2 bogeys or worse per round over the last five years per Bet The Number.
We've got the 3 course, 54 hole cut amatuer rotation going on as usual bringing long rounds, easier pin locations and no shotlink on the 2 other courses.
With the perfect weather conditions projected, I'm firing early on the outright market to get some great closing line value. We fired on the 1st five names on this card early Monday during the DISCORD only 1st Look Outright show and grabbed some great numbers.
More Intel on the course
We've got plenty of caddie friends on site this week to help us understand how this golf course is playing. I'll also be paying close attention to the player quotes throughout the week and dropping them in the Nut Hut Discord.
I'm also back to doing my weekly course breakdown videos that drop on Sunday afternoons. I'll be discussing course insights, key stats, and sharing my screen for an early look at the Bet The Number model. Check out this week's video if you'd like more on PGA West.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Research, #Cheat-Sheets, or #Caddie-Info channels this week...you're missing a TON of information.
The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 14/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units, the 2021-2022 season up 26 units and the 2022-2023 season down 10 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
So for the last 4 PGA TOUR seasons, this article is up 67 units. However, the landscape of the PGA TOUR has changed, and the winners have been shorter over the last 2 years. For that reason, I've decided to start the 2024 season at a 20/1 minimum instead of 25/1.
Long Shot Outright Bets for The American Express 2024
Unlike last week, I've got the card loaded with mega bombs with the last 4 being Call of Duty Nuke Town territory. I'm buying the variance and leaning on iron play and putting.
Sam Ryder is the only guy on the card that hasn't played yet in 2024. He'd buck the trend if he gets it done as most winners tee it up in Hawaii prior to winning here.
Given Sungjae's record at The Amex, his record setting BoB performance at The Sentry, and his upgrade at the caddie position (shout out Willy Wilcox) -- he was too juicy to pass up early Monday at 25/1. He's been hammered down, but I'd still take him as short as 18/1.
I'd argue Bobby Mac's 220/1 number is the most egregious misprice in the field given his pedigree. Sure...he's shaped like a bag of milk, but he's won twice on the DPWT, should've won the Genesis Scottish in 2023, and has top 15's at Augusta and The Open. 220/1 is insane.
Another name you may be scratching your head at is Billy Horschel. Listen...I'm kind of a sucker for a long number with Billy Ho. The guy's a closer when he's on. He doesn't typically play the Amex, but he's a solid Pro Am guy that typically hits it straight and makes putts in bunches. I'll take a chance he rekindles the old Billy Ho form and closes the door on one at 90/1.
I'm spending 5 units to win between 30 and 33 units with a hit. We're down 10 on the season.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
