The Rundown: 2023 3M Open
And just like that, major championship season is over. Brian Harman's domination at Hoylake may not have been every golf fan's dream ending to the final major of the year, but it definitely was if you were one of the lucky few holding a 150-1 ticket on the Short King. We move on to the part of the calendar that sees the pros and fans alike take a much-needed breather to recover from two-straight weeks across the pond. But golf addicts like us know there's just as much money to be made in Minneapolis as in Liverpool. We're running out of time here folks. The 3M marks the penultimate event of the 2023 PGA TOUR regular season before we close out with the FedEx Cup playoffs, so let's make the most of our dwindling opportunities to cash some tickets with a strong week in Minnesota.
course notes & quotes
One of the newer events on the PGA TOUR schedule, the 3M Open has been a late-season fixture on the calendar since its inception in 2019. TPC Twin Cities has played host to all four prior editions of the event, and we've seen low scores each time with the champion eclipsing the 15-under mark each year.
At 7,431 yards, the Arnold Palmer design is longer than the average TOUR setup and features wall-to-wall bentgrass and 4" bluegrass and fescue rough. The greens are on the bigger side at 6,500 square feet on average making for higher GIR rates and lower scores. The fairways are relatively wide and the rough isn't overly penal, so it's no surprise we've seen longer hitters such as Tony Finau, Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolf win this event.
But a deeper look at recent leaderboards shows there's more than one way to go low at TPC Twin Cities. Shorter sharpshooters like Adam Hadwin and Louis Oosthuizen have seen success here thanks to their ability to avoid the almost constant threat of water around this layout. Water hazards come into play on 15 holes, and as a result, the Palmer design ranks alongside the likes of Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass in most penalty strokes and reloads per round.
"There are a lot of intimidating shots out there," said Adam Long about TPC Twin Cities. "There’s room to miss, but there’s a lot of water out there. It’s kind of in your face, you can’t avoid it. So it provides a lot of birdies, but it’s also pretty visually intimidating."
Scorching temperatures in the midwest this time of year will force the organizers' hand when it comes to the conditions this week. The greens are slated to run at a 12 on the stimp, but they'll be watered heavily each night just to keep the grass alive with highs in the triple digits possible early in the week. With that said, expect another low-scoring event as these guys will be firing at pins and sticking it close on the receptive greens.
Water Works
“There are a lot of intimidating shots out there. There’s room to miss, but there’s a lot of water out there. It’s kind of in your face, you can’t avoid it. So it provides a lot of birdies, but it’s also pretty visually intimidating.”
— Adam Long
Course history
As mentioned above, the top of the leaderboard has favored power over precision in recent years. While TPC Twin Cities can be overpowered, the players who have the sense to aim away from trouble off the tee and be aggressive on approach are the ones who've found repeated success.
Off the Tee
The fairways at TPC Twin Cities offer a relatively large target, but that doesn't mean driver is always the play off the tee. Champ, one of the longest hitters on TOUR, actually hit less than driver on nine non-par-3 holes during his final round in 2021. Last year's event paints a similar picture. Only two of the top 10 finishers in '22 ranked inside the top 15 in driving distance that week, and the champion Finau wasn't one of them. But what Big Tone did do was finish 3rd in SG: OTT and T6 in driving accuracy.
Tee to Green
When looking at the approach distributions from last year, the 3M falls pretty nicely in line with the average TOUR setup. This is predominantly a mid-iron test on approach, but it really boils down to how much risk each player is willing to take off the tee. For those that opt for distance over accuracy, playing shorter clubs from the rough hasn't proved too difficult over recent years due in large part to the size and receptiveness of these greens. But on the flip side of the same coin, the conditions also make it easier to hold these greens even with a lower trajectory from a longer approach. Approach play will be key to keep up in the birdie fest as last year, seven of the top-10 finishers ranked T15 or better in SG: APP for the week.
Around the Green
TPC Twin Cities is one of the few PGA TOUR setups where around the green play is almost a complete non-factor. Not too many players will be missing these large and soft greens, and the ones that do simply won't be able to keep up with the low scoring. Last year, Finau and Scott Piercy were the only contenders who finished inside the top 10 in SG: ARG. The greens themselves offer plenty of long putts given their size, but they're not much of a three-putt threat as TPC Twin Cities ranks behind only Royal Liverpool in terms of easiest putting from outside 15 feet according to DataGolf.
Betting picks & plays
With only five of the OWGR top 30 in the field this week, the 3M is a perfect opportunity to back some new names. I've got no interest in laying any strokes with Finau and Cam Young at the top of the odds sheet, and while I hope Justin Thomas gets what he needs to qualify for the playoffs (he's currently outside the top 70), I will definitely not have money on him this week either. As always, be sure to check out the Tour Junkies Blog for more picks and insight from the rest of the gang, including DB's Big Balls Betting Card, which always comes in hot with the long bomb plays. With that said, here are some names and numbers I like at the 3M Open, and be sure to drop me a follow on Instagram, Twitter and TikTok for more plays throughout the week.
Sepp Straka (+2200, T10: +280)
With the Ryder Cup just two months away, Sepp Straka is peaking at the right time. The Southerner by way of Austria is the hottest European golfer on the planet over the last two weeks, and he's likely locked up a spot on Luke Donald's squad at Marco Simone. He followed up his first win of the year at the John Deere with a T2 at Hoylake last week, and I don't see any reason why he can't keep it going. TPC Twin Cities should set up nicely for his style of play despite a hit-or-miss record here with a T18 and two MCs in three trips. He ranks 5th in the field in SG: APP and 10th in Total Driving, and his comparatively poor play around the greens shouldn't hurt him as much as usual.
Adam Hadwin (+3500, T10: +360)
Maybe it's the proximity to his homeland, but the Canadian's record in Minnesota speaks for itself. Hadwin has finishes of 38th, 6th and 4th in three starts at TPC Twin Cities bolstered largely by incredible accuracy off the tee, beating the field's average fairways hit by over 10% in his last two appearances here. His recent form has been up and down with a playoff loss to Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage followed by a missed cut at the John Deere, but he also posted a strong T12 at his national open prior to getting bulldozed by a security guard.
Will Gordon (+11000, T10: +1000, T20: +400)
The first edition of the 3M Open saw a young bomber snag his first PGA TOUR victory when Matt Wolff held on to a one-stroke win in 2019. Here's hoping Will Gordon can do the same thing this year. While Nicolai Hojgaard or Ludvig Aberg will be the more popular picks in the 'first-time winner' category, their odds are a bit too short for my liking. Now there's a reason Willy G is a triple-digit longshot. He's gained strokes putting just once in his last seven starts. But with an easier putting setup facing him at TPC Twin Cities, perhaps he won't be as hamstrung by the short stick. He's also coming off a solid effort against a deep field at the Genesis Scottish Open where he finished T25 and gained over half a stroke off the tee and on approach.
Meet the Author:
Nate Moore
A Georgia native, proud UGA alum and former media guy for Augusta National, the only thing Nate Moore loves more than the Peach State is a Top-20 parlay. Nate is a golf-obsessed sportswriter/journalist who brings his experience in the golf industry to the Tour Junkies brand.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.