The Power Fade: 2024 Cognizant Classic In the Palm Beaches
The Approach to fading big names for the 2024 Cognizant Classic
What’s going on TJ Nation! Ann Arbor's Own Good Ol' AK Allen Klutts here bringing you another edition of the Power Fade: The Fades 8K and Above You Need to Smash Your DraftKings GPP's!
With our journey to the West Coast and Mexico now over, the PGA TOUR begins the Florida Swing this week. PGA National plays host to this event FKA The Honda Classic. Not only has the name changed for this event, but PGA National now plays as a Par 71, with Hole #10 playing as a Par 5. Water, water, and more water is a big defense at PGA National, as the aqua is a feature to almost every hole on the course.
Chris Kirk looks to defend his title this week, and our winning score should hover between -12 to -15 under par.
Without further adieu, let's take a look at who our Power Fades for the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches are!
Rory McIlroy ($12,700)
Our first Power Fade of the week is the class of the field. Rory McIlroy, who comes in at a lofty $12,700 on DraftKings, is the textbook definition of a bold fade in our GPP's.
Why The Fade Works:
Rory has the talent to destroy us and make this fade look foolish, there is no doubt about that. That being said however, McIlroy's stats do lend itself to the fade being warranted.
McIlroy comes into this week ranked 111th in Strokes Gained Approach over the last 12 rounds. This is troubling to say the least. When you factor in that Rory also ranks 51st in Bogey Avoidance, and we get an opportunity to fade the top of the board who may have sneaky ownership this week.
Saying Rory McIlroy may have sneaky ownership seems odd to say, but there is a way this can happen. Having a 5k range this week means you can play McIlroy comfortably.
I can envision a scenario where many people start teams Rory/Cole/Svensson inflating all three of these men's ownership. Adding on a 5k golfer to the backend of the lineup also allows for a nice mid range piece as well.
From a game theory perspective we could fade Rory, and even double stack the 10K range to get different at the top of our lineups.
To quote our very own Pat Perry "Just watch f--king golf". Rory, while he has had spike rounds also has had a case of the stuck in neutral as well. At $12,700 he essentially has to win to return value.
With a high variance course, and his recent tendency to stall out as he climbs the leaderboard, let's be bold and fade Rory.
Shane Lowry ($9,300)
Our second Power Fade of the week is another Irishman, and a man who has fantastic course history. Shane Lowry is our second Power Fade at $9,300 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Shane Lowry has outstanding course history, there is no denying this fact. However, if you look into the recent form Lowry had coming into those performances, they were much better than what we see this year. PGA National is not a course that you want to be finding form at, and Lowry's current form is concerning.
Over his last 12 rounds, Lowry ranks a putrid 115th in Bogey Avoidance. Parlay this with ranking 109th in Strokes Gained Putting and we have a recipe for disaster. Factor in popular ownership on the Irish Bear and the fade becomes a real leverage play. An interesting name you could pivot to in this range is Corey Connors, who has decent form, and comes in a potentially half the ownership.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! We will be returning to you next week as we head to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
Follow me on X @AllenKlutts and on Instagram @Allen_Klutts906
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"To quote our very own Pat Perry "Just watch f--king golf". Rory, while he has had spike rounds also has had a case of the stuck in neutral as well. At $12,700 he essentially has to win to return value."
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.