The Power Fade: 2024 BMW Championship
The Approach to fading big names for the 2024 BMW Championship
What’s going on TJ Nation! Ann Arbor's Own Good Ol' AK Allen Klutts here bringing you another edition of the Power Fade: The Fades 8K and Above You Need to Smash Your DraftKings GPP's!
Fresh off the heels of Hideki Matsuyama surviving at the St. Jude, we are now on to week 2 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. 50 men have earned a trip to beautiful Colorado. 30 men will advance to Atlanta and East Lake next week to end the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Castle Pines, a beautiful Par 72 playing nearly 8,000 yards is our host for the BMW Championship. 8,000 yards sounds like a daunting task, but keep in mind we are at altitude, meaning the boys will be hitting BOMBS in the Rocky Mountains.
This week presents an interesting challenge. Castle Pines presents the players with wide fairways, but you damn sure better hit them. Consequently, we may see players clubbing down off the tee this week to keep the ball in the shortgrass.
With another strong showing for the Power Fade last week (Henley T30, Connors T50) let us take a look at who we are fading for the BMW Championship. Bring on the Power Fades!
Nick Dunlap ($6,900)
Most weeks we would never consider someone under 8K, let alone 7K for our first Power Fade.
However, with a 50 man field we have to take advantage of opportunities to fade high ownership. With that in mind, Nick Dunlap returns to the Power Fade at $6,900 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Dedicated readers of the PF may take note that we have seen Dunlap in the Power Fade three times this season.
Now you may think ol AK is a Dunlap hater. I am actually a huge fan of the Crimson Tide product. That being said he has been wildly inconsistent off of an elite performance.
When we delve into the stats, Dunlap has struggles that lend itself to fading his potential chalk ownership.
Off the Tee play will be key this week, and Dunlap ranks 42nd in my Bet The Number model. Interestingly enough with this statistic is that Dunlap has not followed up elite SG Off the Tee performances. He tends to be abysmal the following week. Factor in that the youngster also ranks 39th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, and we can start to see reasons for the fade.
When looking at the scorecard for this tournament, long Par 3's are the name of the game. Par 3 scoring has been critical this season, and this week is no different. Dunlap ranks a putrid 45th in Par 3 Scoring.
In a 50 man field, ownership will naturally be high on everyone. However, recency bias with Dunlap should drive his ownership. Considering how inconsistent Dunlap has been following up big time performances, let's fade the man whose season will come to an end at Castle Pines.
Wyndham Clark ($9,200)
Our second Power Fade of the week is the home state boy. While he has been playing quite well, the stats lend itself its time to sell high. Wyndham Clark is our second Power Fade of the week at $9,200 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Wyndy C has been rolling of late. Outside of catching the wrong wave at The Open, we have seen solid golf from the former Major Champion.
Statistically, Clark has issues that are hard to ignore. This is especially true should ownership be heavy on the hometown boy.
Driving Accuracy will be a key factor, and Clark clearly has issues. Ranking 49th in Driving Accuracy is troubling. Couple this with ranking 43rd Strokes Gained Approach and we have the recipe for a textbook fade.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! We will return to you in the near future with more fades to win your GPP's.
Follow me on X @AllenKlutts and on Instagram @Allen_Klutts906
Until Next Time.... Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"In a 50 man field, ownership will naturally be high on everyone. However, recency bias with Dunlap should drive his ownership. Considering how inconsistent Dunlap has been following up big time performances, let's fade the man whose season will come to an end at Castle Pines."
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.