The Power Fade: 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Approach to fading big names for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
What’s going on TJ Nation! Ann Arbor's Own Good Ol' AK Allen Klutts here bringing you another edition of the Power Fade: The Fades 8K and Above You Need to Smash Your DraftKings GPP's!
A Monday finish hit us once again last week with Austin Eckroat coming out the winner. After an extended weekend in Palm Beach we head to Orlando and Arnie's place: Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
Bay Hill, one of the more recognizable courses on the PGA TOUR plays as a Par 72, 7,466 yards. Long, difficult Par 3's await the players this week. Furthermore they must take advantage of the 4 Par 5's on Bay Hill especially the very scorable 16th hole.
Kurt Kitayama looks to defend this week in a field featuring 77 players and a Top 50 cut. Iron Play will be critical to playing well this week and we should see a winning score hovering around -12 to -14.
Without further adieu, let's take a look at who our Power Fades are for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Will Zalatoris ($8,900)
Our first Power Fade of the week is one of the feel good stories of the young PGA TOUR Season. The return from injury for Will Zalatoris has been inspiring to see, but he is our first Power Fade of the week at $8,900 on DraftKings.
Why The Fade Works:
Willy Z when healthy has proven himself to be a ball striking machine with a suspect putter. Over the last couple weeks, Zalatoris has shown that the return to form pre-injury is upon us and the world is taking notice.
With his betting numbers crashing harder and harder each day, an $8,900 price tag seems like a discount, which will lead to heavy chalk ownership. Consequently, people will be looking to build Scottie/Willy Z lineups. Fading the ownership can be a way to get different especially if Zalatoris struggles this week.
Interestingly, Willy Z has gotten progressively worse at Bay Hill in his three attempts. With finishes of 10th, 38th, and 53rd. Spoiler Alert: It was Putting!! Additionally, throw in the fact that his SG Around the Green was terrible and you can make an argument that maybe Bay Hill isn't the best fit for Zalatoris.
Statistically speaking, we all know Willy Z struggles with his putter. Ranking 57th in this field for Putting is concerning, as you do need to make a few putts to succeed at Bay Hill. Factor in a 45th ranking in Bogey Avoidance, and we see that Willy could make some big numbers.
We have to take some risks in a small field and this could be a major way to gain leverage on the field. We could pivot down the board to Tommy Fleetwood for half the ownership.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600)
Our second Power Fade of the week is also in the 8K range on DraftKings. Matthew Fitzpatrick and his $8,600 price tag round out our Power Fades for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Why The Fade Works:
Fitzpatrick's course history has been very strong, there is no denying this. However there are some statistical signs that could warrant a fade if the Course History players push Fitzpatrick into a chalk play in the 8K range.
With the long, treacherous Par 3's at Bay Hill, you will have to play these well to have any chance to win. Fitzy comes in ranked 51st in Strokes Gained Par 3 200-225 yards. Additionally Fitzpatrick ranks 60th SG Par 4 from 450-500 yards.
Fitzpatrick has been very up and down this year, and while he seems like the prototype player for Bay Hill, I think we can pivot down the board to Hideki Matsuyama at less ownership. Again is this risky, absolutely. We have to find leverage somewhere this week, and with no real reason to fade Scottie Scheffler we have to find ways to leverage the chalk especially in the 8k range.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! We will be returning to you next week as we head to the 50th Anniversary of The PLAYERS Championship and TPC Sawgrass.
Follow me on X @AllenKlutts and on Instagram @Allen_Klutts906
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"Interestingly, Willy Z has gotten progressively worse at Bay Hill in his three attempts. With finishes of 10th, 38th, and 53rd. Spoiler Alert: It was Putting!! Additionally, throw in the fact that his SG Around the Green was terrible and you can make an argument that maybe Bay Hill isn't the best fit for Zalatoris.
We have to take some risks in a small field and this could be a major way to gain leverage on the field. We could pivot down the board to Tommy Fleetwood for half the ownership."
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.