The Power Fade: 2023 Wyndham Championship
The Approach to fading big names for the 2023 Wyndham Championship
What’s going on TJ Nation! Allen Klutts here with another addition of The Power Fade: The Fades 8k and Above that will help you smash your DraftKings GPP's.
Coming off the heels of Lee Hodges first career victory at the 3M Open we head to North Carolina for the final regular season event. With spots in the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs on the line this week, we find some interesting names in the field.
Sedgefield CC should provide another birdie-fest this week, as historically we see anywhere from 15 to 20 under win this event. Once again we have a high variance event where avoiding the chalk can be very profitable.
With back-to-back weeks where both Power Fades have missed the cut, we go for three in a row! Let's get into this week's Power Fades!
Alex Smalley ($8,100)
The hometown boy, Alex Smalley is our first Power Fade of the week at $8,100. While it would be a great story for Smalley to break through at his home course, certain factors point towards more heartbreak than triumph.
Why The Fade Works:
One of the biggest factors towards the Alex Smalley fade this week is ownership. Early projections have Smalley as one of the highest owned players this week. Additionally, models will project Smalley quite favorably, almost ensuring he will be a Top 3 owned player on the slate.
While fading ownership in high variance fields is always a solid approach, there are further warning signs that fading Smalley makes for a great play.
Bogey Avoidance will be a key factor this week, and Smalley ranks 80th in this field. Consider this as well, we have only 2 par 5's at Sedgefield CC, therefore there are two less scoring opportunities. Smalley loves to make a bogey, and therefore in a shootout environment I will be looking to pivot elsewhere.
Putting is also a concern with Smalley. Ranking 109th in this field for SG Putting, screams fade. Sedgefield CC has one of the highest 3 putt rates on tour, giving pause to playing a bad putter even on his home course.
Denny McCarthy ($8,700)
Denny McPutts returns to the Power Fade this week at $8,700. There is no doubt the stats will show McCarthy as a great play considering the price.
Why The Fade Works:
Simply put, this is a pure ownership fade. The stats show that McCarthy should be a good play. However, he isn't a good enough play to be 20% owned per early projections.
Getting off the tee will be crucial this week. If we were to nitpick Denny, his SG OTT isn't exceptional at 58th in this field. This does put a lot of pressure on his putter if the driver isn't cooperating.
Denny will be a popular second man in this week. With Russell Henley being chalk at the top of the board, McCarthy should be the next man selected with Alex Smalley a logical third. Fading a man who relies on his putter to make his bones seems like the right play, even thou you may have to hold your nose while you do it.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade. We will be back next week for the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs: The FedEx St. Jude Championship!
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"Putting is also a concern with Smalley. Ranking 109th in this field for SG Putting, screams fade. Sedgefield CC has one of the highest 3 putt rates on tour, giving pause to playing a bad putter even on his home course"
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.