The Power Fade: 2023 Open Championship
The Approach to fading big names for the 2023 Open Championship
What’s going on TJ Nation! Allen Klutts here with another addition of The Power Fade: The Fades 8k and Above that will help you smash your DraftKings GPP's.
Our second stop on our two week trip across the pond brings up to the oldest major: The Open Championship.
Royal Liverpool, the site of Rory McIlroy's last major is our host this week. After a weather impacted finish at the Scottish Open, we appear to be seeing no issues with the weather this week. Early reports are a soft course which should play as a bombers paradise with scores hitting between -15 to -18.
As we say "cheerio" to Scotland, Let's head to England for our Open Championship Power Fades!
Shane Lowry ($9,100)
Shane Lowry is our first Power Fade of the week at $9,100. The Open Champion from Portrush is a compelling play at his price, but there are some interesting statistics that make us wonder if a pivot is the play.
Why The Fade Works:
The Irish Bear will be a sneaky popular second man in this week. A Rory/Lowry stack to start lineups leaves you $7,250 for the rest of your lineups. Factor in a chalky projected ownership on Robert MacIntyre, and that 3 man build will project more ownership on Lowry.
The stats while not terrible, do not say that Lowry is a must play. Royal Liverpool has smallish greens, and will require clutch putting to score well.
Shane Lowry is a BRUTAL PUTTER. While he ranks 69th in the field in Strokes Gained Putting, the eyeball test makes it seem that he is much worse. As our boy Pat Perry says "Watch F'ing Golf People"!
While the narrative will be that Royal Liverpool is a "club down" course, I still believe that bombers will have the ultimate advantage. Lowry ranks 77th in Driving Distance, making this a question of with soft conditions, will Lowry be able to keep pace with the bombers? The inverse of this question is that if the wind picks up will Lowry be long enough to compete in brutal, windy conditions.
My answer to these questions is no. Pivoting to Hideki Matsuyama is my play. Deki is half the ownership and in my belief provides more upside. Let's fade the Irish Bear and back Japan's favorite son.
Tony Finau ($8,200)
Tony Finau makes his second appearance of the season in the Power Fade. While the last time Tony was a Power Fade he won the Mexico Open, this go-around I think we are going to see better results.
Why The Fade Works:
Finau has been a staple of the low 9k range for the past few years in big events. Seeing him now at 8.2K on DraftKings is very tempting, but the stats do not align with playing Finau.
Tony ranks 61st in Good Drives Gained this week. On a course where hitting Good Drives is a key to success, this is concerning. If the putter was doing anything for Finau, I might be able to look past this issue, but the putting woes add a further reason to look elsewhere.
Additionally in years past, Finau has been a DraftKings points monster. Finau was the king of finishing T-25 outright, but T-10 in DraftKings points. This year Tony has slipped to 43rd in this field for DK scoring. Consequently I think we can say that in his current form, Finau lacks the upside to make our lineups even at a "bargain" price for him at $8,200.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade. We will be back in the Good Ol' USA for the 3M Open. Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
"Shane Lowry is a BRUTAL PUTTER. While he ranks 69th in the field in Strokes Gained Putting, the eyeball test makes it seem that he is much worse. As our boy Pat Perry says "Watch F'ing Golf People!"
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.